S’WAK NEEDS A ‘SABAH-LIKE’ POLLS FORMULA

By: JOE FERNANDEZ

A structured seat distribution plan and a united front will 'at least' give the opposition in Sabah and Sarawak 'a fighting chance' in the coming elections.

It’s being flogged in public that the opposition should ensure that the 29 ‘Dayak’ seats are represented in the forthcoming state polls by one political party Sarawak National Party (Snap) thus leaving the 29 ‘Malay/Muslim Melanau’ seats to PKR and 13 ‘Chinese’ seats to DAP.

The suggestion that PKR should confine itself to the Malay/Muslim Melanau seats comes from Snap.

The only concession that Snap is willing to make is to allow PKR chief Baru Bian to stand in Ba’Kelalan, a Dayak seat.

This brings Snap’s target of Dayak seats down to 28 from the earlier 29.

However, the party has hinted this week of a new target of 40 seats. Already, Snap has announced its candidates for 16 state seats while working on the other names.

The 29-29-13 is a neat formula but unrealistic since it doesn’t take into account mixed and marginal seats, 12 and five respectively.

This calls for compromises among all opposition parties to secure such seats.

Also, no seat can be considered ‘ethnic’ if the single biggest community on the electoral rolls does not comprise 65 per cent or more.

Again, any seat where the single biggest block of voters comprise less than 65 per cent of voters but at least 51 per cent should not be considered an ethnic seat.

This is the key to the success of the Barisan Nasional (BN) in Sabah and Sarawak, as in elsewhere, leaving aside the ruling coalition’s Department of Dirty Tricks (DDT) which goes into action three days before D-day.

Common disgust for Taib

Patently, the opposition in Sarawak needs to emulate the BN in the allocation of seats for the forthcoming state elections if it’s to have at least a fighting chance.

The best prediction is that the opposition, if it forges a sense of co-operation, unity and working together, can at least give the BN a run for its money.

Fear of losing in the polls, and as a result the good life, keeps BN leaders sober and their marriage of convenience intact.

The Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu (PBB) has a huge war chest on which its partners in the coalition are dependent and this factor alone keeps them in line.

The opposition, however, is not bound by anything except a common loathing for the ruling coalition in general and Sarawak Chief Minister Abdul Taib Mahmud, 75, in particular.

The Sarawak opposition, despite many issues in its favour, will be going into the polls with the odds stacked against them.

Not the least of these problems is logistics, the abuse of government machinery by the BN and electoral fraud by way of vote-buying and the like.

The opposition in Sarawak, by first discussing the allocation of seats without agreeing on the principles involved, is putting the cart before the horse.

This is a problem that the opposition in Sabah is working hard to resolve and the informal discussions behind the scenes so far may provide some useful lessons for Sarawak.

The principle in the Sabah case, which the opposition in Sarawak would do well to emulate, is that the majority of state seats should be contested by the local parties with the remainder for the national parties.

Ideal seat allocations

In the case of parliamentary seats, the national opposition parties should get a token one seat each.

In short, Sabah (Sarawak too) should be represented in Parliament by local parties and not the national parties.

The seven Chinese state seats in Sabah, it has been suggested, should be shared as follows: Sabah Progressive Party (3) with the remainder to the United Borneo Front (1); DAP (2) and PKR (1).

This gives the majority of the Chinese seats; four to local parties.

The 13 Dusun seats may be shared out as follows: UBF (7), Sapp (3) PKR (2) and DAP (1). Again, as with the Chinese seats, this gives the majority of the Dusun seats; 10 to local parties.

The eight marginal seats will hopefully be shared as follows: UBF (3); Sapp (2); PKR (1); PAS (1) and DAP (1). This gives the majority of marginal seats; 5 to local parties.

For the 32 Muslim seats, the formula is: UBF (9); Sapp (8); PKR (12); PAS (2) and DAP (1). This give the majority of the Muslim seats; 17 to local parties.

The final division of seats should stand as: UBF 20; Sapp 16; PKR 16; DAP 5; and PAS 3 making up 36 seats for local parties and 24 seats for national parties.

Since UBF is not a political party and an unregistered NGO, its 20 candidates can be expected to stand under the banner of the other parties as follows: Sapp 11; PKR 5; DAP 3; and PAS 1.

Hence, the majority of UBF candidates, which is 11 of them would stand under a local banner.

Final allocation under respective party symbols would then be: Sapp 16 + 11 (27); PKR 16 + 5 (21); DAP 5 + 3 (8); and PAS 3 + 1 (4). The second figure, in brackets, under each political party is the UBF quota.

Opposition in Sabah

A united opposition in Sabah is expected to pick up four Chinese, six Dusun seats, five marginal seats, and 15 Muslim seats.

The total is 30 seats or a stalemate in the 60-seat state assembly.

The opposition in Sabah would have to work that much harder to get a simple majority of 31 seats in the state assembly.

In Sabah BN, both local and national parties are united in a common purpose.

This is the secret of their strength which the opposition in Sabah and Sarawak needs to emulate.

BN even brought in MIC to make sure that the few hundred or thousand Indian votes in Sabah are placed in strategic places to give the ruling coalition a winning edge, especially in marginal seats.

The flaw in the allocation of seats among BN component parties in Sabah is that national parties now take the majority of both the state and parliamentary seats.

This is something that the opposition in the state can reverse if they stand united.

No funds from BN

The untold story in Sarawak is that PKR offered a measly three state seats to Snap, because the latter was dependent on the former for funding.

The situation appears to have since turned around. Snap has managed to free itself from PKR’s financial clutches and has its own resources to fuel its politics.

These funds are not from BN, as it is being rumoured, or from abroad as is the case with one opposition party in the state.

Moving forward along the Sabah formula lines, the opposition in Sarawak needs to take into account the realities on the ground.

This would enable them to make the necessary sacrifices and compromises to take on the BN and at least deny it the coveted two-thirds majority.

That itself would be a huge moral victory which will translate into even more gains during a general election.