By : BRIDGET WELSH
ONE MONTH after GE13,
attention has turned to the Umno election. Rumours are already circulating
about possible challengers to the ruling party's No 1 post. While the Black 505
rallies continue to mobilise protest against the May 5 general election that
many recognise as seriously flawed, the dominant political party is myopically
focused on its party polls and who will lead the party after October.
The flurry of activity in
recent weeks - from the call to make Umno more inclusive ethnically to the
pleas for the return of the 2,000 delegates as electors (rather than 46,500
members) are all part of the now intensifying internal Umno political
jockeying.
All eyes are on the contest
for the top leadership position, especially given that Prime Minister Najib
Razak performed poorer electorally compared to his predecessor and did not
fully deliver on his promise of winning back Selangor and a two-thirds majority
in Parliament.
More and more calls are
being made to keep the two top positions uncontested. In Umno, however, the
real politics is happening behind the scenes. The grassroots are mobilising for
the first stage of the party electoral process - the divisional polls.
Despite the public rhetoric,
current conditions point to a competitive contest, in which if conditions do
not radically change, Najib will likely face a credible and substantive
challenge to his position.
Five factors
There are five underlying
factors that point to a challenge:
First, the modus operandi in
Umno is money politics. This was a legacy of the Mahathir years and has become
deeply entrenched, feeding into the concerns over corruption and governance.
For many of the delegates, they join the party for the perks and invest in
positions for potential financial gains.
Elections are an integral
part of the financial rewards in the system as they involve the distribution of
incentives. The logic is simple - the more the competition within the party,
the more the incentives. Given the modus operandi in Umno, there are vested
interests in fueling contests.
The higher the level of
competition, the greater the promise of rewards. This election involves more
people, so competition is costly, involving mass outlays of funds to more
people than ever before. Part of the call for the return to the old
2,000-delegate system is driven by this economic ‘money politics' reality.
There is a tension here
between those who would like to minimise costs, with those who would like to
receive dividends. The numbers are on the receiving ends, thus the systemic
pressure for greater competition.
Second, Umno as a party is
deeply factionalised. This is not unique. In fact for dominant one-party system
this is the norm, as seen in Taiwan, Japan and Mexico. All political parties
have some degree of internal divisions. These divisions, however, feed into
competition as the leadership has to accommodate the various warlords.
In some cases, such as
recently in Negeri Sembilan, the leadership has had to take sides on who to
elevate to positions in the state government. Warlordism fuels competition by
bringing national politics to the state level and vice-versa. Currently, the
intensity of conflict at the state level and underlying resentment against
Umno's current leadership for perceived favouritism contributes to pressure for
more leadership competition.
Malay chauvinism under
challenged
Third, Umno as a party is
being pressured to reform its identity after GE13. To be more precise, its
Malay chauvinism is being challenged. The challenge is taking the form of calls
to move the party into a more multi-ethnic entity, and be more inclusive of
non-Malays. This is in response to the effective death of the BN as a
multi-ethnic power-sharing coalition in GE13.
This measure initially
mooted by Najib has yielded a strong reaction from the rank and file, who have
come out of a polls where ethnic Malay chauvinism was stoked and ignited to
bring the party faithful together against the opposition. The disconnect
between the multi-ethnic initiative promoted by a national leader seeking
national representation and the party grassroots embedded in their ethnic
nationalist framework is real, and has caused disgruntlement among some and
anger among others.
The push to maintain the
openness in the party electoral system taps into this, as more numbers can
openly display their rejection of transforming the party outside of Dr Mahathir
Mohamad's Malay chauvinist mode.
Fourth, there is the reality
of generational pressures within the party. Najib was not successful in having
many of ‘his men' elected in GE13, as he hoped to garner a new cadre of leaders
to support his push to consolidate his position within the party. After all, he
has yet to be elected to the presidency.
The push for younger, new
faces remains, but the bottleneck in the leadership is substantive. The impact
is that younger leaders will by nature ally with different actors with the hope
of moving up the ranks in a system that has been slow to engage in generational
transformation.
Finally, amidst the
structural concerns is the long-standing push for statesmanship. Many in Umno
hark back to the good old days when Umno leaders were respected across the
Malaysian society, and seen as national leaders to be proud of. There is
division within Umno, and nationally, regarding Najib's leadership as well as
his statesmanship.
He has not taken a prominent
role post-GE13, and this raises questions. Najib, like his predecessor Abdullah
Ahmad Badawi, faces the difficulty of meeting conflicting demands and higher
expectations. This push for ‘statesmanship' leadership will be a driver for
some of the potential contenders for power.
Najib seeks new allies
These party dynamics - money
politics, warlord factionalism, party identity, generational pressures and
statesmanship - all contribute to increased possibilities of a leadership
challenge and greater party contention. At issue will be the new electoral
system, the timing of the polls (with early polls apparently favoured by Najib)
and the composition of the challenge itself.
The question being asked is
whether Deputy Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin, who is 66 last month, will feel
this is his last chance to take a shot at the top spot or someone else steps up
to the challenge. Also openly being discussed is Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah, 76,
who has shown a willingness to contest for Umno president in the past. It is
unlikely, given the systemic issues at play, that no one will step forward.
Despite the questions around
GE13 and the continued concerns with electoral irregularities, Umno feels
victorious and is being portrayed as the ‘winner,' contributing to more
risk-taking and competition.
We have seen after the May 5
general election, new alliances are being forged - at least temporarily - ahead
of the Umno polls. Najib has brought many of the Abdullah allies into the
cabinet and he has reached out to Sabah.
He has not significantly
rocked the warlord interests in most of the states as he sought more allies.
His biggest ‘new' ally appears to be Mahathir who said there was 'no
alternative' to Najib in a speech in Japan. But history has shown that
Mahathir's fidelity as an ally is uncertain at best.
Najib has simultaneously
thrown down the gauntlet by not giving Muhyiddin a senior cabinet position and
holding his people at bay by not including them in the cabinet. The contest
effectively began when the GE13 results came in, continued with the cabinet
selection and is ongoing. The strategy of the marginalisation of Muhyiddin has
begun.
In the weeks ahead, the
backroom politics will only intensify. It is much too early to write off a
challenge. In fact, current conditions suggest the opposite - a growing
competition within Umno.
Najib's position should not
yet be seen as secure, as he has to pass the test of his party in what may very
well be the fiercest contests for the party leadership yet.
DR BRIDGET WELSH is
associate professor of political science at Singapore Management University.
She is travelling around Malaysia to provide her GE13 analyses exclusively to
Malaysiakini. Bridget can be reached at bwelsh@smu.edu.sg.
Usaha memerangi jenayah adalah satu 'peperangan' yang memerlukan komitmen dan sokongan berterusan daripada semua lapisan masyarakat bagi mewujudkan persekitaran yang selamat kepada rakyat, kata Perdana Menteri Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak.Beliau berkata penyertaan daripada masyarakat secara aktif dan proaktif dan bukannya dalam bentuk pasif atau "lip service" adalah perlu bagi membantu menjayakan hasrat kerajaan mewujudkan perasaan selamat, tenteram dan bebas daripada perasaan takut ketika berada di negara ini.
ReplyDeleteBeliau turut menegaskan bahawa kadar penurunan jenayah bukanlah muktamad berdasarkan statistik dan perangkaan yang dicapai hasil pelaksanaan pelbagai inisiatif sejak ia dilancarkan pada tahun 2010.
ReplyDelete"Penyertaan secara aktif dan proaktif oleh masyarakat bukan dalam bentuk pasif atau lip service. Kalau kita sebagai individu dapat melakukan penyertaan masing-masing secara proaktif dan aktif, saya percaya sokongan dan dokongan daripada komuniti adalah asas yang amat penting yang boleh membawa kepada kejayaan kita memerangi jenayah," katanya.
PEMBANGKANG SEBENARNYA TAKUT SEKIRANYA NAJIB KEKAL SEBAGAI PERDANA MENTERI MALAYSIA, MAKA LEBIH BANYAK PEMBAHARUAN, PEMBANGUNAN DAN BANTUAN DIBERIKAN KEPADA RAKYAT..
ReplyDeleteSerahakn kepada UMNO sendiri menentukan nasib Najib.
DeleteMALAH JIKA NAJIB KEKAL SEBAGAI PERDANA MENTERI, TIDAK MUSTAHIL NEGERI KELANTAN, PULAU PINANG DAN SELANGOR AKAN JATUH SEMULA KETANGAN BN PADA PRU14 NANTI..
ReplyDeleteItu juga bergantung kepada pilihan rakyat sendiri.
DeleteSEBAB ITU PEMBANGKANG HARI INI MENGGUNAKAN APA SAHAJA CARA UNTUK MENJATUHKAN NAJIB.. TIDAK CUKUP MENUDUH BN MELAKUKAN PENIPUAN, MEREKA ANJURKAN PULA DEMONSTRASI SELURUH NEGARA.. ANWAR JUGA TERUS MEMAINKAN PERANAN DENGAN MENGHASUT NEGARA2 LUAR BAHAWA KERAJAAN BN TELAH MENAFIKAN HAK BELIAU UNTUK MENJADI PERDANA MENTERI.. DAN KINI MEREKA TAMPIL PULA DENGAN STRATEGI BARU IAITU MENIMBULKAN PROVOKASI DIKALANGAN PEMIMPIN2 BN..
ReplyDeleteUNTUK LEBIH ADIL, SEMUA MEDIA DI MALAYSIA JUGA SEPATUTNYA MENDESAK SUPAYA ANWAR BERSARA ATAU MEMBERIKAN LALUAN KEPADA PEMIMPIN LAIN UNTUK MENGETUAI PARTI PEMBANGKANG TERBESAR ITU..
ReplyDeleteKenapa pula membuat desakan? Biarlah Anwar sendiri yang menentukannya.
DeleteMuhyiddin ada peluang ke?
ReplyDeleteSaingan sihat memang baik supaya lebih bermaju.
ReplyDeleteWe should like to congratulate The Malaysian Insider. In publishing a piece by Clive Kessler, a professor emeritus at the University of New South Wales and long one of Barisan Nasional's most committed foreign critics, they have offered one of the most intellectually sophisticated, clever, subtle examples of pro-Pakatan Rakyat propaganda we have seen in some time.
ReplyDeleteIt is also intellectual rubbish. But – again to the Insider's credit and Kessler's – it is exceedingly difficult to make such beautiful rubbish.
The piece, titled "GE13: What happened? And what now?" and which purports to demonstrate that Umno was wildly successful in the recently-concluded elections, relying on racist strategies and lies by omission and commission to gain a dominant hold on Malaysian politics. It is brilliant because it undercuts much of the spin Opposition media and Pakatan have offered since the election, cites a few indisputable facts and then offers a reassuring storyline of cheating, lying, racist Umno for the Insider's core readership.
ReplyDeleteThe tiny handful of facts actually present in the piece are these: that Umno mauled PAS in the Malay heartland (except in those heavily-urban centres of Kelantan and Terengganu); that Chinese voters voted overwhelmingly for Pakatan; and that Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak and BN told anyone who would listen that they wanted to be the Government to all Malaysians.
ReplyDeleteFrom there, the entire analysis is a brilliant exercise in pseudo-intellectual fantasy.
There are many ridiculous assertions in the piece, but it is perhaps best to begin with the overarching theme: that by carefully using the local and international press, Najib and his advisers were able to portray him and BN in the most sympathetic terms to different audiences, allowing him to focus on the Malay vote and essentially ignore the Chinese and Indian communities.
ReplyDeleteAh, yes. Who can forget how the mat salleh press has gone hammer and tongs after Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim for over a decade? It has been rumoured that of late they have even asked him to restaurants rated with fewer than three stars – a sure sign of their being blinded by BN.
Insofar as international press has said good things about Najib – and this includes media formerly bitterly opposed to BN – could it perhaps be because Najib has genuinely undertaken transformations and reforms of the economy and of government? Do the repeal of the Internal Security Act, the Printing Press and Publications Act and the Banishment Act count for nothing to Kessler? Because clearly they count for a great deal to long-time observers of human rights.
ReplyDeleteThat shallow analysis hardly stands alone. Kessler also attacks Najib for making a hard play for Malay hearts and. One must ask: why not? It may have escaped his notice that Najib heads a party called the United Malays National Organisation. One would naturally expect him to seek their votes and sympathy, especially in the Malay heartland.
Yet Kessler also claims that Najib and his advisers wrote off Chinese and Indian votes. This is categorically absurd. Whatever Najib's failings, a lack of desire to bring Chinese and Indian voters back to BN is not one.
ReplyDeleteWe refer to Najib's non-stop attendance at Indian and Chinese religious and cultural festivals – a first for a Malaysian Prime Minister, and something for which he suffered criticism from within his own party. We refer to the thrust of the 1Malaysia programmes and Najib's transformation programmes, which were designed to be offered without consideration for race – and which were overwhelmingly directed into the multi-racial cities to help alleviate the cost of living and to show an accountable, responsive Government.
We refer to Najib's determination to hold off the elections until almost the last moment – something he attributed to his desire to show voters the benefits of a Barisan Government. No one believed Najib was referring to kampung voters in the Peninsular and longhouse voters in Borneo. Najib clearly believed he had a duty as Prime Minister to be the Prime Minister to all Malaysians, and to work to secure their votes.
ReplyDeleteWe also refer to Najib's demeanour in the wake of GE13, in which he was clearly not only surprised by the extent of the Chinese shift, but determined to re-double his efforts to demonstrate that his is a Government for all Malaysians. In everything from an increased focus on crime and corruption to a renewed pledge to expand his transformation programmes, it is very difficult to argue that Najib believes he need only seize the kampung from PAS.
All of these criticisms should not undercut the brilliance of this work. Since the elections, Pakatan and its captive media have worked at length to dispel the notion that a 'Chinese tsunami' was the cause of BN's losses at GE13, and have suggested that BN's hold on the Government is the result of extensive and (in the case of the 40,000 teleporting and imaginary Bangladeshis who allegedly came to vote and then vanished) physically impossible cheating.
ReplyDeleteYet Kessler implicitly rejects this – a brilliant move, because it then allows him to reinforce a different Opposition belief: Najib is a dirty liar who plays to racists and cares only about Malay votes. As an added bonus, Kessler implicitly calls PAS a group of stumbling incompetents, a belief long held by much of the Insider's readership.
The Insider's readers do not need to consider the possibility that Najib legitimately criss-crossed Malaysia, reaching out to communities that had rejected BN in 2008 because of the sincere desire, inherited from his father, that Malaysia should be one nation of all races.
ReplyDeleteThey can instead be satisfied that what they have always believed is true, and a foreign academic agrees!
This is a sophisticated exercise in artificially constructed, crypto-intellectual propaganda. Yet perhaps the most telling aspect is that Kessler completely ignores the complete lack of any genuine economic or social policy from Anwar and Pakatan, thus rendering his own analysis a made for measure Malaysian Insider exercise in spin.
ReplyDeleteWe applaud the Insider. Rarely has so little been said quite so artfully.
Perhaps next time, they can match the substance to the form.
Perdana Menteri (PM) Malaysia, Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak,
ReplyDeletemasih mendapat sokongan daripada kalangan ahli Barisan Nasional (BN),
khususnya cabang pemudanya.
Ini sedang desas-desus tersebar luas bahawa beberapa ahli Parlimen (AP)
ReplyDeleteMalaysia - kedua-duanya daripada BN dan Pakatan Rakyat (PR) - minggu ini
bertemu sambil meluahkan sokongannya kepada bekas Menteri Kewangan
Malaysia, Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah, untuk mengambil alih jawatan PM
apabila Dewan Rakyat dimulakan pada 24 Jun ini.
minggu lalu, Pemuda Umno - parti komponen paling dominan dalam BN - telah
ReplyDeletemembuat ketetapan agar Datuk Seri Najib dan timbalannya, Tan Si
Muhyiddin Yassin, dikekalkan sebagai Presiden dan Timbalan Presiden Umno
pada pemilihan pemimpin parti itu yang dijadualkan diadakan lewat tahun
Malah, bekas PM Malaysia, Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad, yang terkenal dengan
ReplyDeletekritikan pedas beliau terhadap dua penggantinya sebelum ini, termasuk
Datuk Seri Najib, baru-baru ini seakan-akan turut membuat 'pusingan-U'
untuk menyatakan sokongannya terhadap usaha mengekalkan dua jawatan
tertinggi dalam BN dan Umno seperti yang sedia ada.
Ketua Pemuda Umno dan BN, Encik Khairy Jamaluddin, pula berkata pihaknya
ReplyDeletetelah membuat ketetapan agar Datuk Seri Najib dan Tan Sri Muhyiddin
dikekalkan sebagai Presiden dan Timbalan Presiden Umno.
The Malaysian Government will grant multiple entry visas to qualified foreign investors in a move to get more multinational enterprises to support the the local economy, said Malaysian Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak.
ReplyDelete“Malaysia must adopt a free market economy to establish links with regional partners, secure inward investments and open up industries to healthy and fair competition in propelling the national economy towards a more prosperous future.
ReplyDelete“A sustainable economy with a free market promotes stability and generates growth. And this means attracting and developing talents needed to compete in the global market,” he said.
According to Najib, more attention is needed to strengthen the local domestic investment by empowering government-linked and private sector companies and local small medium enterprises to become regional and global players.
ReplyDeleteHe said the Economic Transformation Programme (ETP) would provide the basis for the creation of a free market economy designed to increase domestic demand and growth on the back of foreign investments.
“In the medium term, we must make affirmative action programmes more meritocratic and market friendly,” said Najib, and stressed the importance in boosting domestic demand and productivity to offset dips in the country’s major export markets.
ReplyDeleteNajib said although Malaysia’s capital market has good institutional structure and regulation, more effort is needed to promote the participation of international enterprises by opening up the Malaysian market to accommodate a wider spectrum of individuals, communities and businesses.
He urged government-linked subsidiaries especially the Employee Provident Fund (EPF) to play a more central role in ensuring good quality mid-cap stocks, increase velocity of shares traded to ensure the market remains vibrant. “Proactive contribution would open another avenue for companies to access primary and secondary funding to develop their business,” he said.
ReplyDeleteLeading the initiative to fulfill the needs of the securities and derivatives industries, Najib disclosed, the government will be hosting the Graduate Representative Programme or GRP 100 in the coming weeks to bring new graduates to support increased market activities.
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile, Najib welcomed foreign participation in the local economy, and affirmed commitment to explore and enhance bilateral trade and cooperation with regional and international partners. In addition, he said that Malaysia will continue to play a leading role in building Asean as an asset class by working together with other countries in the region to achieve Asean economic integration.
ReplyDelete“There is much to be done: the current level of cross-border equity and debt investment still remains low, with Malaysian, Singaporean and Thai entities making just eight per cent of their equity and debt in off-shore investments in the region,” he said
ReplyDelete“We would like new investors to come into the region to seriously consider using Malaysia as your gateway into Asean: we have the experience, connections and market infrastructure to support you,” he said.