By : JOE FERNANDEZ
A pullout by either PKR or SAPP from tomorrow’s Batu Sapi by-election will only benefit Barisan Nasional, according to Daniel John Jambun, the former deputy chairman of Sabah PKR.
Commenting on calls for opposition unity against the BN juggernaut, he said he saw no guarantee that a withdrawal by one opposition party would increase the other party’s chances of winning.
“If PKR pulls out, the thinking is that its Chinese votes will certainly return to BN,” he said. “At the same time, there’s no guarantee that PKR’s Muslim votes will go to SAPP.”
In the case of a SAPP pullout, Jambun sees its Muslim votes returning to BN while “no one is certain” that its Chinese votes would go to PKR.
Jambun, an experienced polls strategist with PKR’s powerful KadazanDusunMurut Task Force, conceded that forecasting the voting trend among Muslims was a dicey affair because members of the faith come from several ethnic groups. Furthermore, he added, at least 5,000 illegal immigrants, mostly Muslim, had found their way into the electoral rolls.
He said both opposition parties had passed the point of no return and should continue to the end, no matter how bitter it might turn out to be.
“It would be interesting to see who votes for whom so that we can assess the respective strengths and weaknesses of the opposition parties as well as the BN,” he said.
“We can’t expect straight fights in all seats in Sabah in the next general election.”
Strong message
Nevertheless, he added, the consensus on the ground was that PKR should give way to SAPP.
“It’s clear by now, based on random sampling, that the combined votes for PKR and SAPP will probably be more than those for the Barisan Nasional,” he said.
“BN will get at least 45% of the votes cast.”
He reckoned that PKR would at best get only 25% of the votes and SAPP 30%.
The assumption is that as many as 18,000 of the 25,000-odd registered voters will turn up at polling stations.
Meanwhile, outgoing PKR Vice-President Jeffrey Kitingan said he was ‘cautiously optimistic’ that the opposition would win, but would settle for a ‘razor-thin’ BN victory.
A less than comfortable win for BN would send the ruling coalition a strong message that it could not be business as usual in Sabah and Sarawak, he added.
“The BN cannot be allowed to win by default in Batu Sapi without being rapped on the knuckles at the same time,” said Jeffrey, who heads a list of 15 mostly divisional PKR Chiefs barred from Batu Sapi by its Divisional Chief, Hassnar Ebrahim, who faces certain disciplinary action after the by-election.
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