IT'S TOUCH-AND-GO FOR THE OPPOSITION

By :  JOE FERNANDEZ

WE ARE forgetting the older generation Malays who want 100 per cent the NEP to be retained although the majority of them have nothing but their two you know what.

But like gamblers or lottery ticket buyers or alcoholics, they all hope to benefit someday when they become YBs or even PM and can put their hands in the National Cookie Jar under the guise of affirmative action and/or bringing so-called development to the people.

East is East and West is West and never the twain shall meet. The great majority of the Malays in Malaya will not vote the same way as the great majority of non-Malays.

Malays think that to vote as the non-Malays would only benefit the latter and thereby it's a loss to them somehow.

Between Umno and PKR/Pas, the great majority of the older generation Malays would vote for the former. The majority of the younger generation and new voters remain to be seen. Will they buy the pemimpin yang di sanjung tinggi crap?

The Indians, who decided in 67 of the parliamentary seats in 2008, remain an unknown quantity this time except for the younger generation and new voters who are all largely anti-government.

In 2008, 85 per cent of the Indians voted against BN. Yet BN still managed to form the Federal Government with the help of Sabah and Sarawak where they lost only two parliamentary seats.

This time BN can lose 14 parliamentary seats in Sabah and Sarawak in a delayed tsunami provided the Opposition -- read Anwar -- can get their act together. Anwar's thinking in Sabah: "Never mind if I lose. Jeffrey must not win so that Muslim domination of Sabah can continue." He expects Umno in Sabah to cross over to PKR if PR seizes Putrajaya.

Sarawak is one-to-one but what about Sabah? Anwar is being bull-headed in Sabah instead of withdrawing gracefully in favour of the local parties.

Sabah does not need PR or BN. PKR and Pas will not win even one seat in Sabah.

In Sarawak, PKR will win only one parliamentary seat -- Mas Gading -- if Star doesn't take it, Dap six and Pas none.

If PKR and Pas withdraw from Sabah, the Opposition can win seven parliamentary seats including two by Dap.

At the same time, if left alone or ignored by PR, less Indians can be expected to vote against BN this time. The Indians should vote against all incumbents. They don't need MIC or Hindraf because the Indians will not benefit whoever -- whether BN or PR -- is in power. Hindraf should remain an NGO and apolitical.

Even more Chinese this time will vote for the Opposition. The Chinese don't need the BN or its development.

What is important is that the ruling party does not get a two-third majority.

The Opposition will retain Kelantan and Penang but what about their other two states and Perak? It's 50:50. That's why Kit Siang is moving to Johor and Anwar may move to Perak, if not Selangor. There's a need to rattle Umno. The Opposition has a chance to seize Terengganu, Perak and Negri Sembilan.

Change in Malaysia will depend on the younger generation and new voters, the Indians and Sabah and Sarawak. At least BN in Malaya can be wiped out. Umno will survive.

BN's free money policy is merely saving some of the money that would have otherwise been lost to corruption. Better to make the majority happy than the corrupt minority. BN will not stop the corruption completely because that's why they are in politics.

The GE will be sometime between May 10 and mid-Oct after Parliament expires on April 28 undissolved.

Just as not more than six months must lapse between one parliamentary sitting and another parliamentary sitting, not more than six months must lapse between one parliament and another if it expires undissolved.

The GE needs to be called within two months only if Parliament is dissolved.

The longer the GE is delayed, the better for Umno in Malaya but not in Sabah and the worse for BN in the country.

The longer that the GE is delayed, the worse for PR including Dap in Sabah and the better for the local Opposition parties.