MALAYSIA melakar permulaan yang hebat dalam usaha mengubah dirinya menjadi ekonomi berpendapatan tinggi menjelang 2020, mengatasi sasaran yang ditetapkan tahun lepas.
"Kita sudah buktikan kita mampu menghasilkan keputusan yang pantas. Bagaimanapun ia adalah marathon dan bukan pecutan," kata Menteri di Jabatan Perdana Menteri yang juga Ketua Eksekutif Unit Pengurusan Prestasi dan Pelaksanaan (Pemandu), Senator Datuk Seri Idris Jala.
Masih ada sembilan tahun lagi dan semua pihak dalam sektor swasta dan awam mesti terus fokus dalam merealisasikan matlamat transformasi Malaysia, katanya dalam kenyataan yang dikeluarkan oleh Pemandu sempena pelancaran Laporan Tahunan Program Transformasi Ekonomi (ETP) 2011 Isnin malam.
Kesemuanya, enam langkah reformasi dan 12 Bidang Ekonomi Utama Negara (NKEA) sudah dilaksanakan, katanya.
Beliau berkata sasaran 10 tahun Program Transformasi Ekonomi (ETP) sudah ditentukan dengan jelas : RM1.4 trilion pelaburan bagi menjana Pendapatan Negara Kasar (PNK) sebanyak RM1.7 trilion dan mewujudkan 3.3 juta jawatan penting menjelang 2020.
Ini diterjemahkan sebagai PNK perkapita US$15,000 dan melonjakkan Malaysia sebagai negara berstatus berpendapatan tinggi, katanya.
Beliau berkata bagi memastikan ketelusan dan ketepatan dalam Laporan Tahunan ETP 2011, PricewaterhouseCoopers, firma audit bebas, dipilih untuk mengaudit prosedur.
Pada tahun pertama pelaksanaannya, momentum yang diwujudkan oleh ETP menghasilkan kesan besar serta-merta ke atas ekonomi dengan pelaburan swasta melepasi sasaran 2011 sebanyak 13 peratus untuk mencecah RM94 bilion dan PNK sebanyak empat peratus atau RM830 bilion.
Keyakinan yang dicetuskan oleh ETP juga menyumbang kepada peningkatan pelaburan langsung asing sebanyak 12.3 peratus pada 2011 berbanding RM32.9 bilion pada tahun 2010, pencapaian tertinggi dalam tempoh 10 tahun.
Dagangan berkembang 8.7 peratus kepada RM1.27 trilion tahun lepas sahaja, kata Pemandu.
"Mengenai pembiayaan awam, kerajaan mengutip RM25.3 bilion cukai tambahan hasil daripada peningkatan kecekapan. Defisit pada tahun 2011 sebanyak 5 peratus KDNK, mengatasi unjuran 5.4 peratus. Saya yakin kita mampu mencatat matlamat bajet difisit 4.7 peratus tahun ini," kata Idris Jala. (BERNAMA)
moga ETP terus dpt tingkatkan ekonomi negara.
ReplyDeletekerajaan sentiasa melakukan terbaik untuk menjana ekonomi Malaysia terutamanya Sabah.
ReplyDeleteTeruskan usaha bagi mencapai apa yang dirancang. Pastikan Malaysia mencapai sebagai semua negara berpendapatan Tinggi pada 2020.
ReplyDeleteAs a trading nation, Malaysia is susceptible to the global trading environment. The natural disaster in Japan as well as the debt crises in the United States and Eurozone, has an impact on our economic growth. Despite that, our GDP still grew albeit at a moderate pace of 4.0% in Q2 2011. By comparison, Singapore Q2 2011 GDP only grew by 0.9%.
ReplyDeleteForecast revisions by economists and analysts generally fall within the 4.5 to 6.0% range, which is in line with official forecast. Bank Negara Malaysia maintained that we can hit a 5% GDP growth for the entire 2011.The 6% annual growth required is an average growth rate required over 10 years. During this period, it is foreseeable that the growth will fluctuate above and below the 6% mark. Coming lower than the 6% average in one or two quarters, especially in the face of strong external headwinds, is not conclusive of ETP’s success or failure. Nonetheless, it does alert us to the need to work faster and harder to ensure the initiatives launched take off as planned in order to stimulate economic growth.
DeleteETP has greatly excited the market. In the 10 months since ETP’s launch, 2010 FDI grew to US$9.1 billion from US$1.4 billion in 2009. For Q1 2011, FDI topped US$3.7 billion, amounting to 40 per cent of 2009’s full-year total. FDI approved by MIDA for the first five months of 2011 was RM12.7 billion, 57% of the RM22.1 billion recorded for the whole of 2010. On the equity front, prior to the recent correction sparked by S&P’s downgrade of the US souvereign rating, Bursa Malaysia hit new all-time highs six times year-to-date. Confidence of Malaysian consumers reached an all-time of 110 points, based on Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index.
DeleteOn the ETP front, a total of 87 initiatives have been announced covering 65 Entry Point Projects, which means half of the EPPs have taken off. Total investment commitment stands at RM170 billion, with RM220 billion in GNI and over 360,000 new jobs forecasted. Investment committed and forecasted GNI and jobs stand at 12, 13 and 11% of their 10-year targets. Foreign sources account for 24 per cent of total private investment of RM127 billion in the NKEAs. This trend closely to our 10-year average forecast of 27 per cent FDI.
DeleteGLCs are not part of the government’s balance sheet and their investments are private investment. GLCs have a role to play in assisting economic growth of a country. What is important is that they are run on a competitive and commercial basis, with little government privileges. It is unrealistic not to expect GLCs to invest in the economy as they are market-driven and accountable to their shareholders, which include Malaysian public. Our GLC transformation has entered its 7th year, with the G20 companies outperforming the KLCI by 2.1% (16% vs 13.9%) during this period. Top 20 Malaysian GLCs account for about one-third of Bursa Malaysia market capitalisation and steps are being taken to dilute GLICs equity holding the GLCs to make our market more liquid and appetising to portfolio and retail investors. By comparison, the top 6 Singaporean GLCs accounted for 17% of SGX market capitalisation.
DeleteAll in, public investment in ETP stands at 25%; hypothetically, the combination of public and GLC investment stands at 65% and not 77% as alleged by Rafizi. This includes the RM60 billion RAPID by Petronas and RM36.6 billion MRT, which are very lumpy investments spread over 5-10 years and distort the analysis of long-term trend. Stripped off RAPID and MRT, public investment in ETP stands at 9%, running close to the 8% average forecasted up to 2020; hypothetically again, the combination of public and GLC investments in this case stands at less than 18%. Public investment will only account for 8% of the total investment required over the next 10 years. This cannot be considered pump-priming. More critically, public investment will only be channeled into projects that are highly catalytic and create great economic multiplier effects. For example, the MRT project is expected to generate direct GNI of RM3-4 billion per annum while the spillover effect is forecasted between 2.5-3.5x multiplier or indirect GNI RM8-12 billion per annum over the next 10 years.
DeleteOn the other hand, Petronas is investing again after all these years precisely because the government is doing the right things such as allowing gas to be sold at market price, hence encouraging new exploration and the development of the Melaka regasification terminal. If we continue to ask Petronas to sell gas at one-third of market price, there is no incentive for Petronas to invest in new exploration, to the detriment of the economy. Showing the top 10 investment by value does not reflect the deep impact of the ETP. For every large project, whether privately or publicly funded, there are many other smaller initiatives that help all segments of the population. Examples include aid to help smallholders replant aging and unproductive oil palms and farmers plant high-yield fragrant rice, assistance to transform traditional sundry shops to increase income, training early childcare teachers, and producing much needed trained technical workforce in collaboration with the private sector starting with E&E, oil and gas, business services and tourism.
DeleteThe oil and gas development at the Tapis and Teluk fields are investment by ExxonMobil under a risk-sharing contract with Petronas, with no investment by the latter. There is clearly no GLC investment. Similar to ExxonMobil, Shell’s diesel plant in Port Dickson and Gumusut deepwater development involves not investment by Petronas.
DeleteThe 5 million cubic m oil storage facility in Pengerang, Johor is developed by the Dialog-Vopak consortium with the Johor state government on a 90:10 equity split. This is clearly a private investment.Tanjung Agas Oil & Gas and Logistics Industrial is a private investment by Tanjung Agas Supply Base & Marine Services Sdn Bhd. There is neither government nor GLC involvement.
DeleteIt is factually inaccurate to label these projects as GLC-funded. In June 2011, Malaysia’s CPI rose by 3.5% against Indonesia’s 5.4%. In absolute terms, Malaysia’s inflation is stable and significantly lower to that in Indonesia. July 2011 CPI which came in at 3.4% showed that inflationary pressure is tapering off.
DeleteWhile Malaysian wages growth may have slowed while those in Indonesia are growing in double digits, we must remember that it is a comparison of a middle-income with a low-income economy, where the base is significantly lower. Also, wage increment is linked to inflation and the consistently higher inflation in Indonesia mean wage increment there is similarly higher. A better comparison is to take into account purchasing price parity. As a simple illustration, using the Big Mac Index, it will cost a Malaysian US$2.40 and an Indonesian US$2.62 to buy the same Big Mac, a difference of 9%. This is on the back of 2010 GNI per capita on PPP basis of US$14,360 for Malaysia and US$4,300 for Indonesia, according to World Bank’s report dated 1 July 2011.
DeleteComparing Malaysia and Indonesia on face value without taking into account their respective growth stages and purchasing price parity is too simplistic and akin to comparing oranges to apples. While it is ideal for political and social reforms to go hand-in-hand with economic reforms, there is no imperative proof that political reform is catalytic to successful economic reform. In China and Vietnam, two economies that have sustained high growth rate over the last 10 years, this argument clearly holds no water.
Deletekadang2 perlu juga buat pecutan untuk hasil yang lebih baik.. tidak juga objektif 2020 itu nanti hanya tercapai selepas 2020.. lagi cepat lagi bagus..
ReplyDelete