Oleh : ALAN TING
KUALA LUMPUR : Barisan
Nasional (BN) mungkin mengekalkan 137 kerusi Parlimen yang dikuasainya sekarang
dengan margin lima peratus lebih atau kurang, tetapi tidak cukup mencapai
majoriti dua pertiga, menurut kajian dan analisis terperinci Centre of
Strategic Engagement (CENSE).
Kajian terbaru itu
menunjukkan masih ramai yang bergantung kepada kekuatan dan organisasi jentera
pilihan raya BN.
"Berdasarkan sentimen
semasa, ramalan CENSE ialah BN mungkin akan kehilangan 10 kerusi di kawasan
pilihan raya yang didominasi kaum Cina di Johor, Sabah dan Sarawak.
"Media Cina telah
membuat pendirian tegas tentang 'kekejaman polis' ketika Bersih 3.0 dengan
mencetak akhbar dengan warna hitam dan putih, dan menggalakkan wartawan dan
mereka yang bersimpati memakai pakaian hitam pada Hari Kebebasan Akhbar
Sedunia," katanya.
Ia berkata tindakan itu
telah meletakkan kerusi Cina di Johor, Sabah dan Sarawak lebih terancam
kedudukannya bagi BN.
Sebaliknya, CENSE berkata
terdapat peningkatan sokongan pengundi Melayu, kira-kira lapan peratus sejak
2008, yang akan menyaksikan sokongan di kawasan pengundi Melayu dan di kerusi yang
didominasi pengundi Melayu dan campuran, terutama bagi Umno.
Berikutan itu, parti
pembangkang yang mungkin terjejas adalah PKR.
Pusat itu berkata faktor
yang mempengaruhi keputusan Pilihan Raya Umum ke-13 termasuk - sentimen, isu,
kepimpinan, infrastruktur, logistik, pembiayaan dan jentera kempen, dan kempen
juga akan menunjukkan jika jentera BN benar-benar menyesuaikan lanskap baru
politik, yang didominasi pembangkang, perang siber.
"Pembangkang tahu cara
memainkan sentimen orang ramai dan mengakui kuasa media sosial untuk
menyampaikan kepada pengundi muda. BN, sebaliknya, mempunyai kelebihan dengan
logistik dan infrastruktur jenteranya, terutama di kawasan luar bandar di
Sabah, Sarawak, Pahang dan sebahagian kawasan di Johor," katanya.
Tetapi, BN dilihat memiliki
jentera pilihan raya lebih kukuh kerana ia lebih tersusun dan ditadbir oleh
andaian yang lebih realistik berbanding 2008.
"Bagaimanapun, apa yang
membimbangkan BN kali ini adalah moral yang rendah di kalangan anggota parti
dan pekerja di kawasan majoriti pengundi Cina atau di kerusi campuran di mana
pengundi Cina merupakan sebahagian besar pengundi asal," katanya.
Sehubungan itu, ia percaya
BN cukup realistik untuk menyedari ia tidak boleh
merampas Pulau Pinang dan
Kelantan daripada pembangkang tetapi berharap untuk mengekalkan Perak serta
mengambil semula Kedah dan Selangor. Bagaimanapun, peluang untuk menawan semula
Selangor adalah tipis.
Dalam laporan itu, CENSE
juga berkata walaupun peralihan pengundi Melayu kepada Umno, tetapi ia masih
50:50. Ini adalah kerana pengagihan kerusi pilihan raya di negara ini yang
berdasarkan kaum. Justeru, peningkatan pengundi Melayu akan meningkatkan margin
majoriti tetapi ia tidak bermakna lebih banyak kerusi boleh dimenangi.
"Dengan alasan sama,
lebih ramai pengundi Cina untuk pembangkang juga mempunyai kesan yang terhad
kerana ia hanya terbatas di kerusi majoriti Cina seperti Seputeh di Wilayah
Persekutuan, Petaling Jaya Utara di Selangor, Kota Kinabalu di Sabah dan
Kuching di Sarawak," katanya.
"Laporan itu juga
menunjukkan cabaran terbesar Perdana Menteri Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak dalam
BN adalah bagaimana untuk menterjemahkan populariti beliau kepada undian untuk
Umno dan BN, terutama di kawasan bukan Melayu dan di kawasan bercampur di
Perak, Selangor, Johor, Sabah dan Sarawak.
Beliau masih memerlukan
sokongan kumpulan minoriti untuk parti beliau bagi memastikan keputusan lebih
baik berbanding 2008.
CENSE juga berkata
berdasarkan kajian mereka selepas perhimpunan Bersih 3.0 28 April, golongan
Melayu telah memberi sokongan kuat kepada Umno, bermakna Umno harus memenangi
lebih daripada 79 kerusi pada pilihan raya akan datang.
Analisis daripada
penganjuran Bersih 3.0 juga menyatakan isu kebebasan bersuara dan hak untuk
berhimpun akan menjadi sebahagian daripada arus perdana politik manakala kuasa
media sosial tidak boleh diperlekehkan dalam mobilisasi khalayak yang besar.
Ini tanpa mengira sama ada
ia untuk menunjukkan perpaduan tulen atau semata-mata pengalaman kebebasan
demokrasi.
Kajian CENSE juga
menunjukkan sebahagian pengundi Cina kekal tidak terpengaruh dengan Bersih 3.0
berikutan 'kekecewaan' berterusan tentang isu yang telah lama wujud seperti
sistem penyampaian yang lemah, tadbir urus dan meritokrasi.
Bersih 3.0 mungkin, pada
tahap terbaik telah mempengaruhi pengundi Cina yang tua agar kembali semula
kepada BN kerana bimbang potensi berlaku rusuhan dan kekacauan.
Laporan itu juga berkata
tidak semua golongan kelas pertengahan Melayu bersedia untuk menukar kerajaan
dan ini boleh memberi tip undian memihak Umno. (Bernama)
pada PRU nnti, pasti persaingan sengit berlaku, harap BN dpt kekalkan kerusi malah dpt menambahnya.
ReplyDeleteThe answer is in this general election.
ReplyDeleteBarisan Nasional (BN) kini berada dalam zon bahaya. Ini kerana , hidup mati BN bakal ditentukan pada pilihanraya umum akan datang (PRU 13) dan jika ahli parti dan jentera parti masih bersikap leka , berkemungkinan BN yang sudah memerintah negara sejak Merdeka itu akan tewas.-Timbalan Perdana Menteri Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin
ReplyDeleteSemua ahli umnoBN harus bekerjasama untuk menyokong calon2 yang dipilih oleh pucuk pimpinan
DeleteSabotaj antara ahli perikatan BN-Umno sendiri yang sedang berlaku ketika ini patut dielakkan dan mereka seharusnya bersatu padu.
ReplyDeleteJangan ada yang main tikam dari belakang.
DeleteNampaknya PRU13 ini adalah penentu untuk segalanya bagi BN nanti.
ReplyDeleteSemoga kerajaan BN dapat mengekalkan kerusi dan merampas kerusi yang dipegang oleh PR.
ReplyDeletebila pembangkang telah lama membangkang dan telah lama menyimpan hasrat untuk merampas kerajaan, inilah jadinya.. banyak tindakan terdesak dilancarkan untuk menumbangkan kerajaan..
ReplyDeletewalaupun pembangkang dibantu dengan perhimpunan Bersih sebanyak 2 kali, saya yakin pembangkang tetap akan membangkang selepas PRu13..
ReplyDeleteNajib Tun Razak said the young generation should evaluate the achievements of the government from all aspects and not based on political perception and rhetoric.
ReplyDeleteIn this regard, the Prime Minister said the young generation must be trained so that they had higher thinking skills to enable them to differentiate between the perception deliberately created by certain groups, particularly through the internet and social media which were not based on the truth.
ReplyDelete"This is the generation that should be able to evaluate all this...not a matter of perception. Don't think that just because we are the government, we are not right.
ReplyDelete"If the ruling Barisan Nasional is not right, Malaysia would not have developed as it is now : Malaysia will achieve the developed nation status in a few more years," Najib said.
ReplyDeleteHe said this when delivering his speech at the opening of the Malaysian Young Thinkers Convention organised by Malaysian Young Thinkers Youth Organisation (PPM) in collaboration with the Youth and Sports Ministry, Malaysian Youth Development Research Institute and Universiti Teknologi MARA (UiTM) here.
ReplyDeleteNajib said not all countries had detailed planning as Malaysia had in order to achieve the developed nation status because the government was capable of leading the nation to carry out massive transformation.
ReplyDeleteThe Prime Minister said the fact was that Malaysia was not a failed state because if one looked back at the progress the country had made under the present government for the past 55 years, there had been many achievements to the extent that the country could now be interpreted as a successful nation.
ReplyDeleteHe said that most young people emphasised on what was happening today and in future, but the fact was that they had no historical perspective, thus they would be at a loss as to where they had originated from or their past history.
ReplyDeleteThus, he said, some of the young generation did not know the difficulties suffered and the sacrifices made by the past leaders so that their children would inherit a much better nation.
ReplyDelete"Thus, as a young generation, we cannot be blind to history and we cannot become a generation that does not appreciate the struggles of our forefathers," he said.
ReplyDelete"This is the young generation that we can depend upon. It means that as a young generation, we must have the capability to contribute, and the ability to to be critical, innovative and creative in our thinking," he said.
ReplyDeleteAs leaders, Najib said, providing educational opportunities for the young generation to possess academic qualification alone was insufficient because they must be prepared to face the challenges of the 21st century, including attacks on the leaders through the social media instead of the 'poison pen' letters as was the case in the past.
ReplyDelete"They must be given the skill to think in depth so that they will not accept in toto what is being published in the social media.
ReplyDelete"We don't want leaders who are good actors. We don't want leaders who are good in oratory skills but are not truthful," he said.
ReplyDelete"We don't want leaders attacking other leaders, but they themselves are not prepared to swear giving the excuse that it is a political conspiracy, everything is political conspiracy and they are not prepared to defend themselves based on facts," Najib said.
ReplyDeleteHe said the Barisan Nasional (BN) emphasised on the need to make real transformation instead of merely political rhetoric.
ReplyDeleteReal change could also not be achieved through improper street demonstrations with some of the demonstrators jumping 'like monkeys' and kicking policemen, he said.
ReplyDeleteStreet demonstrations would not strengthen democracy, instead Najib described them as 'democrazy' for creating chaos which did not benefit Malaysia.
ReplyDelete"Chaos in the country would benefit no one, but if one does not agree with anything, then voice it in a proper manner," he said.
ReplyDeleteNajib said Malaysians, including the young generation, must do what was best for the country and at the same time, the government provided aid such as the 1Malaysia People's Aid and several other programmes for the young which would be announced later.
ReplyDelete"There is a suggestion that soon I will launch the 1Malaysia book shop that will sell books cheaper than the other shops for the young generation so that they can develop a reading habit. Then, we want to set up 1Malaysia textile shop, much cheaper," he said.
ReplyDeleteNext week, the government would introduce a programme for the young based on the spirit of volunteerism called IMOU at the Kuala Lumpur City Centre for the young so that they could contribute in efforts to build and transform the country.
ReplyDeleteNajib said the young generation who were facing problems such as the 'Mat Rempit' would not be neglected when the government also implemented programmes to rehabilitate this group with the cooperation of the Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia under the patronage of his wife, Rosmah Mansor.
ReplyDeleteHe called on the young generation to acquire skills and to take note that some of them were earning an income of RM3,000 by selling cup cakes.
ReplyDelete"Cup cakes are not that difficult to make, I too can make them but I don't have time as I have become the Prime Minister," he said.
ReplyDeleteAt the function, Najib said he would assist the PPM to go down to the states as a partner of the government to implement the national transformation programme, especially for the young generation.
ReplyDeleteThe one-day convention was attended by 5,000 youths aged between 18 and 40 from 22 career backgrounds including doctors, lawyers, policemen and even young taxi drivers to come out with proposals from their respective profession for consideration by the government.
ReplyDelete