Thursday, 23 May 2013

SABAH POLLS OUTCOME SURPRISES ANALYSTS






By : LISA J. ARIFFIN

PETALING JAYA: In the run up to the 13th general election, several parliamentary seats in Sabah were reportedly under severe threat from opposition Pakatan Rakyat.

In fact it was widely speculated that the outcome of these seats would be the 'clincher' for Pakatan’s Putrajaya aspirations.

But eventually that did not happen, noted political analysts who spoke at a forum here last night.

Despite the opposition’s “Ini Kali Lah” wave which was widely spported by the Kadazandusun Murut and Chinese areas, they failed to loosen Barisan Nasional’s grip on Sabah.

BN had secured 48 of the 60 state and 22 of 25 parliamentary seats as opposed to Pakatan’s three parliamentary and 10 state seats.

Pakatan’s failure to threaten BN’s hold on Sabah came as a surprise to two political analysts, who had expected the opposition to capture “at least 15″ parliamentary seats in East Malaysia.

Universiti Malaysia Sarawak (Unimas) political science lecturer Arnold Puyok said there was a “political tsunami in Sabah”, but it “wasn’t strong enough to cause significant change”.
“The opposition was making inroads. There were a lot of unhappiness in the Kadazandusun and Chinese areas,” he said during a forum organised by Merdeka Centre here.
“With the rise of STAR (Sabah State Reform Party) and “Ini Kali Lah”, a lot of Sabahans thought it was time for change,” he added.
Swing in Malay popular votes
Arnold also noted that in Malay-Muslim majority areas in the state, support for Umno-BN had increased significantly in GE13.
“The BN-Umno vote bank remains strong in rural Muslim-Bumiputera areas. There is strong dominance by Umno,” he said.
He then pointed out that BN was instead losing support in Kadazandusun and Chinese areas.
“In Kadazandusun and Chinese areas, the opposition have been making significant inroads.
“There is a strong anti-BN and Umno sentiment in these areas, but this does not necessarily translate to a ‘Chinese Tsunami’,” he added.
Arnold’s colleague Faizal Syam Hazis, whilst sharing his sentiments on predictions that Pakatan would do well in Sabah, however felt that BN had lost a “a significant” percentage of Malay popular votes to the opposition.
“There were speculations and predictions that Pakatan could have pushed their nine (parliamentary) seats (in East Malaysia) to at least 15, but it didn’t happen.”
“However, Pakatan performed better in 2013 as compared to their one (parliamentary) seat in 2008 (during GE12),” he added.
Faizal also disclosed that despite BN’s overall win, statistics showed the ruling coalition had lost to Pakatan on popular vote which cut “across the board” and included “even the Malays”.
“This is a wakeup call for Umno-BN. The majority are pushing for change, which includes an end to race based politics, the eradication of corruption and cronyism and expanding democratic space.”

42 comments:

  1. Keyakinan rakyat terhadap Barisan Nasional (BN) dapat dibuktikan menerusi kemenangan membanggakan calon-calon BN di Parlimen Libaran apabila setiap Pusat Daerah Mengundi (PDM) mencatat peningkatan peratusan keluar mengundi sekali gus menyumbang kemenangan parti dalam Pilihan Raya Umum Ke-13 (PRU13) pada 5 Mei lepas.

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  2. Ahli Jawatankuasa Umno Bahagian Libaran, Ehun Tujoh, berkata sokongan berterusan rakyat tidak boleh disangkal lagi kerana PDM Zon Dandulit sendiri turut menyumbang kemenangan selesa untuk kerusi di DUN Gum-Gum dan Parlimen Libaran.

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  3. Beliau berkata, peratusan keluar mengundi melibatkan empat buah perkampungan iaitu Kg Banting, Kg Dandulit, Kg Sungai Beruang dan Kg Kuala Gum-Gum di bawah PDM Zon berkenaan mencatatkan 91 peratus berbanding 71 peratus pada tahun 2008.

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  4. “Ini menyaksikan calon BN bagi kerusi Gum-Gum iaitu Datuk Zakaria Mohd Edris dan begitu juga calon BN kerusi Parlimen Libaran, Datuk Juslie Ajirol telah memperolehi undi sebanyak 463 dan 457 dengan masing-masing mendapat majoriti 383 undi serta 363 undi.

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  5. “Mereka berdua mengalahkan calon-calon dari PKR, Star mahu pun Bebas dengan jarak undi yang jauh sekali … ini membuktikan bahawa empat buah kampung yang penduduknya dianggarkan melebihi 4,000 orang itu memberikan sokongan tidak berbelah-bagi kepada BN.

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  6. “Kita bersyukur di atas kemenangan ini yang menunjukkan peningkatan dan sokongan berterusan semakin bertambah baik … ia juga bertitik-tolak kepada kefahaman rakyat terhadap BN yang tidak pernah mengabaikan tanggungjawabnya,” jelas Ehun.

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  7. Ehun yang juga Ketua Kampung Kuala Gum-Gum dan Ketua PDM Zon Dandulit menegaskan kemenangan selesa dua calon BN terbabit di kawasan daerah mengundi di situ adalah atas faktor kepercayaan rakyat terhadap parti.

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  8. Ini katanya, walaupun calon-calon pembangkang hebat berkempen dengan menabur pelbagai dakyah tetapi akhirnya gagal juga meyakinkan rakyat terutama pengundi.

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  9. Tegasnya, keyakinan ini didorong oleh prestasi membanggakan calon-calon BN berkenaan termasuk Ketua Menteri, Datuk Seri Musa Haji Aman yang telah memperoleh kemenangan besar untuk mempertahankan kerusi DUN Sungai Sibuga dalam PRU13.

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  10. “Kita merakamkan ucapan setinggi-tinggi tahniah dan syabas kepada Ketua Menteri yang mempertahankan semula kerusi Sungai Sibuga dengan majoriti yang begitu besar diikuti Zakaria dan Juslie.

    “Kemenangan ketiga-tiga calon BN berkenaan adalah merupakan satu kemenangan yang cemerlang ... kita optimis sokongan rakyat itu akan membawa perubahan besar kepada Libaran nanti,” kata beliau.

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  11. The Home Ministry, via the police, will collaborate with the Malaysian Communications and Multimedia Commission (MCMC) and the Malaysian Cyber Security to check social media content which violates the law.

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  12. Home Minister Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi said the immediate action was to ensure that information channelled by individuals or cyber groups through Facebook, Twitter or blogs were transparent and correct.

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  13. Complaints have been made on the content of the social websites and blogs including those by the 'Red Bean Army' group which touched on matters contained in the Sedition Act concerning racial sensitivity, as well as slanderous content that exceeded legal principles

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  14. groups have called on authorities to amend the Communications and Multimedia Act 1998 to prevent slander and sedition which they alleged cyber troopers were promoting.

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  15. Ahmad Zahid said the policy on the social media mooted by Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak was to provide freedom of expression including the formation of the 'cyber troopers' by political parties and certain groups.

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  16. Former Sabah chief minister Datuk Seri Salleh Said Keruak has urged the opposition coalition Pakatan Rakyat to respect the people's decision to give a comfortable majority to the Barisan Nasional (BN) in the 13th General Election (GE13).

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  17. he said the opposition leader should not question the outcome of the GE13 and the legitimacy of the federal government of the day.

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  18. Salleh, who is also Sabah Umno liaison deputy chief and Usukan state assemblyman, stressed the current BN government was a "majority government" and not minority government.

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  19. In the recent election, BN clearly won more than that

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  20. the direct membership drive should be intensified with a new approach to win the hearts and minds of the young ones and urban voters.

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  21. Election petitions by candidates in the 13th general election must be disposed within six months of filing. Chief Justice of Malaysia Tun Ariffin Zakaria said this would ensure the petitioners received a fair hearing of their case.

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  22. “I hope the judges concerned would hear the cases with an open mind and not bow to pressure from any quarters,” he said while opening the 47th Judges’ Conference here yesterday.

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  23. Among the 101 participants present were Court of Appeal president Tan Sri Mohd Raus Shariff, High Court of Malaya chief judge Tan Sri Zulkifli Ahmad Makinuddin and Chief Judge of the High Court in Sabah and Sarawak Tan Sri Richard Malanjum.

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  24. Ariffin said the six-month period was realistic in view of the likelihood that some of the petitions might be in Sabah, Sarawak and other states in the peninsula.

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  25. Meanwhile, he advised judges not to respond to any comment in the internet expressing dissatisfaction with any ruling or judgement as every decision made was final.

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  26. “Even though the comments might be negative and aimed at tarnishing the image of the judiciary, we (judges) do not need to entertain them as they might not have understood the facts of the case,” he said.

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  27. And, he also reminded judges to make their decisions based on the proceedings and testimonies to protect the interest of the public.

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  28. “This matter must be given attention as there had been a trend in the past where judges try to expand their human rights scope in their decision,” he said, adding that such action would paint an inaccurate picture of the country’s judiciary which upheld justice.

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  29. Prestasi Barisan Nasional (BN) pada keseluruhannya baik dengan berjaya mengekalkan penguasaan di negeri-negeri selain menawan semula Kedah dan menambah kerusi di Kelantan.

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  30. Ketokohan dan kewibawaan pengerusi Badan Perhubungan Umno Sabah, Datuk Seri Musa Aman terserlah apabila parti itu sekali lagi menjadi tonggak kekuatan Barisan Nasional Negeri apabila berjaya memenangi kesemua kerusi Dewan Undangan Negeri (DUN) kecuali DUN Klias yang diperuntukkan kepada parti itu dalam Pilihan Raya Umum ke13.

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  31. Walaupun dikejutkan dengan kekalahan calon BN dari calon Umno bagi kerusi DUN Klias, namun Umno Sabah berjaya menembusi kehampaan itu apabila menang semua 14 kerusi Parlimen yang ditandatangi.

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  32. Sokongan pada rakyat Sabah yang amat memberangsangkan itu membuktikan Musa, yang baru mengangkat Sumpah sebagai Ketua Menteri bagi penggal keempat selepas memimpin BN dengan jayanya dalam pilihan raya umum Ahad, Seorang pemimpin yang bijak mengurus kewangan negeri sehingga mempunyai wang simpanan (reserve) melebihi RM 3 bilion.

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  33. Musa yang mempertaruhkan nasib kepada muka baru Isnin Aliasnih hampir-hampir mengejutkan bekas Ketua Bahagian umno Beaufort Datuk Seri Lajim Ukin dengan hanya kalah tipis kepada bekas mentornya itu.

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  34. Lajim yang juga pengasas Pertubuhan Pakatan Perubahan Sabah (PPPS) dan juga Bekas Ahli Parlimen Beaufort menang tipis dengan majoriti 179 undi.

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  35. Dalam pertemuan empat penjuru itu Isnin memperoleh sebanyak 6,145 undi, Lajim (6,324), Mohd Sanusi Taripin (parti maju sabah (SAPP)-182 undi) dan Aliapa Osman (Parti Reformasi Negeri (STAR)-71 undi).

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  36. Berbeza dengan Umno, parti-parti komponen BN yang lain terutamanya Parti Bersatu Sabah (PBS), Pertubuhan Pasokmomogun Kadazandusun Murut Bersatu (UPKO), Parti Liberal Demokratik (LDP) dan MCA mengalami nasib yang kurang baik apabila pemimpin mereka kecundang dalam pilihan raya itu.

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  37. Tsunami politik itu bukan sahaja hampir meranapkan atau membenamkan pengaruh parti pembangkang yang berpusat di Sabah seperti SAPP dan STAR; tetapi juga memberikan kesan ketara kepada pengaruh parti politik berpangkalan di Sabah yang menganggotai BN.

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  38. Bagi politik nasional yang di bawa oleh parti pembangkang itu, mereka mahukan sistem politik yang lebih terbuka di negara ini berbanding dengan slogan parti tempatan seperti STAR dan SAPP yang lebih kepada slogan autonomi Sabah dan hak-hak rakyat Sabah. Nampaknya politik yang memperjuangkan slogan politik autonomi dan hak-hak Sabah tidak menjadi sebagai 'Umpan Politik' untuk memikat hati pengundi di negeri ini.

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  39. Upko dan PBS menerima tamparan hebat apabila beberapa kerusi DUN dan kerusi Parlimen yang diperuntukan kepada kedua-dua parti berasaskan kaum Kadazandusun mengalami kekalahan. Begitu juga dengan LDP yang tewas dua kerusi iaitu Parlimen Sandakan dan DUN Likas dan MCA turut kehilangan dua kerusi iaitu DUN Luyang dan DUN Kapayan.

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  40. Manifesto tambahan Barisan Nasional (BN) Sabah adalah penyelesaian terhadap segala isu yang diwar-warkan pihak pembangkang selama ini. Presiden Pertubuhan Pasokmomogun Kadazandusun Murut Bersatu (Upko) Tan Sri Bernard Dompok berkata manifesto itu amat bertepatan kerana ia mengambil kira permintaan rakyat peringkat akar umbi negeri ini. “Kesemua 16 perkara utama dalam manifesto ini merangkumi semua isu yang berkaitan dengan rakyat di negeri ini dan ini adalah komitmen BN untuk mendahulukan rakyat.

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  41. Sabah terus kekal menjadi negeri simpanan tetap Umno berdasarkan
    analisis mendapati parti itu mendominasi keseluruhan kerusi Parlimen
    dengan peratusan 88.2 peratus, manakala PKR hanya menang satu kerusi
    dengan jumlah 22,598 undi dengan peratusan 7.2 peratus manakala DAP
    hanya mendapat 14,226 undi atau 4.5 peratus.

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  42. Kejayaan Barisan Nasional (BN) memperolehi 133 kerusi Parlimen pada
    PRU13 merupakan testimoni kepada penerimaan rakyat terhadap dasar
    kerajaan BN dalam memberi keutamaan kepada kepentingan rakyat.

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